Hudson Pv Archive (whattolearn.com and orangequant.com)
return to main Pv page









Wednesday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree.
We'd like to decrease the number of No Bet days and increase the number of signal days, but keeping safety and success levels intact. Stay tuned. Today is marked as an inflection by synthetic trendlines (see video on Opinion page, Nov. 24, 2011 post).

The Warn Invasion mentioned below on Thursday 11/17/11 engaged very well but it took a week of suffering. I finally exited today with a 50% loss. But I'd make the same trade again because the odds are with me. A safer way might be to wait for the first confirming day, but then you might miss a lot of bangbang, based on the stats.











Tuesday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree.








Monday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree.
Unofficially, our Warn Invasion forecast of six days ago (a Thursday) looks like is starting to play out. Also, our synthetic trendline forecast on the Opinion page is so far on target. Tomorrow or Wednesday should be the highest high before a correction.









Friday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree.
Wednesday's forecast for today was correct.













Wednesday after close...
Warn and Green agree, both rotating clockwise.
















Tuesday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree, Green rotating clockwise, Warn rotating very slightly anticlockwise.
Monday's forecast for today was correct.








Monday after close...
Warn and Green agree, both rotating anticlockwise.
Friday's forecast for today was wrong; but the chart makes it look like it was barely right.








Friday after close...
Warn and Green agree, both rotating clockwise.
Yes, I am still holding my upside contracts described Thursday (below), based on the Warn Invasion.





Thursday after close...
No bet. Warn rotated anticlockwise but it's unclear about Green. But, unofficially, i used other Pv information today to load up on upside contracts. See the yellow area at far left of the Pv plot? See what happened to price after Warn crossed the moneymaker and 'invaded' the other three lines? This is a consistent feature of Pv we've never talked about, indicating strong price reversal. Right now it's come near and that's good enough for me- here's a 1-year period to view this phenomenon. Of 16 times 13 are immediate strong upside reversal (within a day or two); 2 times takes awhile; 1 time it's a disaster. But again, today's official call for Friday is No Bet.


REMINDER: We're now using the S&P 500 index (SPX data). We will leave previous scores as they were but  scores are now based on S&P 500 index performance, not the SPY. We cannot tolerate data errors of SPY.
But you can still trade SPY and its derivatives from this.







Wednesday after close...
No bet. Warn and Green disagree, opposed rotations.
Tuesday's forecast for today was correct.

REMINDER: We're now using the S&P 500 index (SPX data). We will leave previous scores as they were but  scores are now based on S&P 500 index performance, not the SPY. We cannot tolerate data errors of SPY.
But you can still trade SPY and its derivatives from this.






Tuesday after close...
Warn and Green agree- both rotated clockwise (I extended yesterday's Warn line in red to show rotation).
Monday's forecast for today was correct.

REMINDER: We're now using the S&P 500 index (SPX data). We will leave the scoreboard as is but future scores will be based on S&P 500 index performance, not the SPY. We cannot tolerate data errors of SPY. But you can still trade SPY and its derivatives from this.




Monday after close...
Warn and Green agree- both rotated anticlockwise.
Was Friday's forecast for today correct? According to stockcharts.com, TDA, and NYSE raw data, it was. But some charts are showing a much lower high than the data does. Personally, i think the data is wrong, so i'm scoring that forecast wrong until i know otherwise.
NOTE, however, that the S&P 500 index per se did have a high today equal to Friday's close, which would still have made the forecast wrong, since it didn't exceed its Friday close. But you'd have nevertheless made a good profit by going long at today's open. But i'm scoring it wrong anyway.

In the forecast at left (for Tues.), i've corrected Green to show what it would look like with a lower high, and it's still an anticlockwise rotation.

IMPORTANT: In charts after today, in order to avoid data errors like the above, we will be using the S&P 500 index. We will leave the scoreboard as is but future scores will be based on S&P 500 index performance, not the SPY. Usually they're the same, in terms of our forecasts, but we cannot tolerate data errors of SPY. The Pv algorithm will remain the same, except modified to compensate for the price differential from SPY. So you can still trade SPY from it.









Friday after close...
Warn and Green agree- both rotated clockwise.
Yesterday's Pv forecast confirmed, but the strategy of waiting to enter long today was not ideal, as it did not provide a better entry than yesterday's close. However, i'll hold to that principle because it's usually true. For consistent results, take consistent action.













Thursday after close...
Warn and Green agree- both rotated clockwise.
Yesterday's Pv forecast confirmed. Today's action clearly demonstrated the wisdom of waiting for entry 'til the next day. Shorting or puts at open today was far better than if you'd entered at close yesterday.












Wednesday after close...
Warn and Green agree- barely. But enough that if tomorrow opens well above today's close, i'm looking to buy puts and ride down.











Tuesday after close...
No bet; Warn and Green do not agree.







Monday after close...
No bet; Warn and Green do not agree.
If you requested the weekly, you already saw it validated today, with a price occurring today at one time lower than Friday's close, a profitable short.





Friday after close...
No clear signal for Monday. Green rotating clockwise, while Warn rotating anticlockwise. BUT, I also have a weekly Pv, which I don't bother to post because no one has asked for it. It gives a clear signal about next week overall. If you want it, just ask.

You may have noticed that there was no chart posted Thursday for today's trading. That's because today was the monthly NFP report, and I reserve realtime viewing of that chart for members in The $50 Trade. It was accurate and I'm now posting it in the panel below.






Here's Thursday's chart after the fact.
It was only available realtime to The $50 Trade members. It was accurate, with Green and Warn rotating in the same direction, anticlockwise, signaling that Friday a price would occur below Thursday's close. The $50 Trade also instructed members on whether to hold short into next week, or exit Friday, based on exhaustive statistical analysis going back two years.





After doing a very informal study
of whether it's better to enter near close on the day of a signal, my personal feeling is it's safer and usually more profitable to wait and enter the next day. Again, this may mean missing a good trade sometimes too, but... conservation of capital is paramount.
SO FROM NOW ON, I'll usually post an hour or two after the close.







Statistic-based Trading of NFP
(nonfarm payrolls report)
The non-farm payrolls report usually comes out the first Friday of each month. That day is heavily traded by serious traders and often makes the biggest move of the month. The $50 Trade gives you a statistical edge. Pages and pages of charts to illustrate relevant stats. Options-focused, but can be used directly on SPY, FAS, FAZ, SDS, SSO, XSP, and other realted ETFs. Get your copy now.





Wednesday after close...
Okay, I have now installed the turquoise Warn line, described below. Yesterday I said Green was "reliable", but that was only in the context of it having expunged bad data from last Thursday. Although I showed you
below the new Warn line (and you should have looked at it), I feel I should apologize for not having looked at it myself. My apologies. The Warn in yesterday's chart conflicted with Green; it rotated clockwise but Green rotated counterclockwise, meaning DO NOT TRUST. So Green gave a bear signal for today (false) and Warn gave a bull signal (true).

Today we have them both rotating in the same direction, clockwise. So sometime Thursday look for a price to occur above today's close, and trade accordingly. Also, Warn today "starting" a bullish cross of its own moneymaker.

PLEASE READ THE WARN DESCRIPTION
below




Tuesday after close...
Okay, Green has finally expunged last Thursday's bad data from source, and is now considered reliable. But it continues to affect Red-Blu for awhile. This time the effect was bad enough for me to shut down posting for a few days, but usually we can muddle through. Sp
I don't bother manually correcting it because this happens too often. You'd think somebody as big as NYSE and Nasdaq could at least get their numbers straight.

Also, I've developed a "WARN" plot to identify these problems. I'll introduce that in the next couple of days. The WARN signal will mean "Don't believe your eyes." It will mean missing a couple good trades once in awhile, but it's worth the added safety; you can see what happens without it at left.


Drop me a note if you're finding this useful
I have a simple compounding strategy I'll be glad to share with you (free). I made money again today and my strategy is still on track in spite of the data fiasco.

Watch above video- then You interpret!




copyright 2011 d. hudson